The UK faces a significant challenge to deliver on net zero targets if progress made to interim 2035 goals remains muted.
That is the warning from AtkinsRéalis, which published analysis exploring the required annual build rate of new energy generation to meet net zero targets and ensure security of supply. From this, it set out how 187GW of new generating capacity is needed to replace ageing power plants and also meet what will be growing demand from increased electrification in transport and within industry.
This means a certain build rate must be hit every year. In 2019, this was 10.5GW to hit net zero by 2050. In 2022, it was 14GW after the announcement of more ambitious targets for 2035.
Now, this figure stands at 15.5GW, meaning 15.5GW of new capacity is needed each year through to 2035 if system goals are to be met. Considering that only 4.5GW was connected to the grid in 2022, there is clearly work to do.
A 15% increase in build rate, year-on-year, would see the UK reach a peak build rate of 25GW a year by 2035. A 10% increase, meanwhile, would see the required peak build rate jump up to 40GW a year by 2035 – the same as 30 of the UK’s largest offshore windfarms in a single year.
Sarah Long, Market Director for Net Zero Energy at AtkinsRéalis, stressed the need to “urgently shift” from scenarios into delivery.
Long continued: “The UK must maintain a laser-like focus on deployment and delivery of net zero generation and the energy infrastructure required to support it. That includes initiatives such as the Civil Nuclear Roadmap announced last week that lays out interim targets against long-term goals, encompasses support for new technology as well as proven large-scale projects and is an example of the type of framework that will help to provide long-term certainty to investors and boost the build rate.”
