There is cause for “cautious optimism” ahead of the winter, according to National Grid ESO, which is forecasting an operational de-rated margin of 4.4GW – up from 3.7GW last year – in its Winter Outlook for 2023/24.
The reason behind the improved margins is due to a changing landscape, both in Britain and the wider European energy markets. Crucially, European gas storage and French nuclear power both have greater availability than they did last year. This supports electricity and gas flows across the continent and over to Britain.
The system operator will carry on working closely with Europe, pledging to adopt a “coordinated approach providing reciprocal support”. It did also note the continued uncertainty that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presents, acknowledging that it cannot completely discount the risks of credible events occurring, meaning the energy industry must continue to prepare and plan for a whole host of different eventualities.
For its part, National Grid ESO is reintroducing its Demand Flexibility Service, through which it incentivises customers to cut their consumption at times where margins are most stretched. Last year it was able to save more than 3,300MWh across 22 events.
