Britain’s renewable power capacity has been expanding at a much faster pace than the country’s transmission network, posing a “key stumbling block” in meeting net zero.
Aurora Energy Research outlined how Britain’s renewable power generation capacity has tripled between 2012 and 2022. This saw renewable power plants accounting for 41% of total electricity generation last year. However, issues around the slow pace of buildout of the grid have meant available renewable power supply often exceeds the capacity of some transmission assets, leading to heavy curtailment costs.
For example, wind curtailment tripled between 2016 and 2022. Last year saw the volume of curtailed wind power equate to 1% of Britain’s total electricity consumption and cost consumers £2bn.
Aurora is forecasting that 40GW of offshore wind will be needed by 2030 to ensure the UK is on track to hitting net zero by 2050. However, without any adequate transmission system upgrades, power sector emissions will be 55% over the total needed for net zero. This is down to the likes of gas-fired power stations often having to increase output to meet demand when renewable generators have to reduce theirs. In contrast, delivering all planned grid upgrades would see power sector emissions 9% lower in the same timescale.
Therefore, closing the gap between renewable power generation and grid capacity is clearly crucial to reaching net zero. Costs should also not delay action to expand the grid. Ofgem and National Grid’s plans for expansion will cost an additional £49bn, when compared to an inadequate upgrades scenario, but will be offset by lower grid management costs due to reduced curtailment.
