Recent announcements made by the government have made meeting future emissions targets harder and will leave the public facing higher costs, according to the Climate Change Committee (CCC).
It issued a new assessment, looking at recent developments on net zero, and did acknowledge “real and tangible progress” since its last report in June with a deal made to electrify steelmaking at Port Talbot, a new cap being put on the UK emissions trading scheme, and the implementation of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate.
However, along with the failure of the latest Contracts for Difference round to attract any bids from offshore wind projects, other announcements made – notably during Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak’s speech on net zero in September – have had a negative impact on the UK’s abilities to hit its climate goals through direct impacts of reduced policy ambition and a loosening of key net zero policies.
In its June progress report, the CCC concluded the government’s plans are insufficient to deliver its emissions goals and that is still the case today. The UK faces having to reduce emissions by 68% on 1990 levels by 2030, with the CCC finding “no material difference” at an economy-wide level with these new announcements with regards to the proportion of required emissions in 2030 assessed that are covered by insufficient plans. This figure stood at 18% in June. It is now 17%.
The 20% exemption to the phase-out of fossil fuel boilers will see significant residual emissions from buildings in 2050, unless boilers installed in exempt homes after 2035 are scrapped before the end of their natural lifetime. Furthermore, without a clear definition of which 20% of households are exempt, this could leave the wider buildings sector facing a lack of clarity. On this, it pointed out how technology cost reductions often arise from policy certainty. This is something these announcements have undermined.
It also drew on how the cancellation of some net zero measures will likely see households facing higher energy bills and motoring costs, alongside growing impacts from climate change. For example, electric vehicles are set to be significantly cheaper over their lifetimes to own and operate than petrol and diesel vehicles. Therefore, undermining their rollout only serves to increase costs for consumers.
The same is true for scrapping plans to regulate the private-rented sector on energy efficiency. The government had previously forecast how energy savings from the policy would save tenants of upgraded properties £255 a year under normal energy prices. With prices currently elevated, this could have been even bigger over the near term, with the CCC suggesting a figure of £325 going by the current price cap.
These moves on fossil fuelled cars and boilers, as well as the decision not to regulate for improved energy efficiency of rented homes, also came with no corresponding estimates of the impact they will have any emissions nor any evidence to support the government’s claim that the UK will still meet its targets. The CCC described this as “unhelpful” and has called on the government to adopt greater transparency when updating its assessments of policy impacts when making major announcements.
