Today’s policy settings promise a significantly different energy world come 2030, with almost 10 times as many electric cars on roads and renewables accounting for almost half of the global power mix, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In the latest iteration of its World Energy Outlook (WEO), the IEA mapped out how today’s policies will see solar PV generating more electricity than the entire US power system is currently able to, will have heat pumps and other electric heating systems outselling fossil fuel boilers globally, and lead to the level of investment going into new offshore wind projects being three times the level of that for coal and gas-fired power plants. However, despite clean technologies looking set to play a far more significant role by the end of the decade, much stronger policies are still needed for 1.5°C.
Demand for fossil fuels is still expected to remain “far too high” to ensure global warming can be limited to 1.5°C. This means worsening climate impacts and the security of the world’s energy system being undermined.
So, can the emissions curve be shaped onto a path that is consistent with the Paris Agreement goal? While it will still be very difficult, the IEA believes so and warned the costs of inaction would be enormous, with the current trajectory promising a global average temperature rise of 2.4°C as it stands.
The IEA is proposing a global strategy to help steer the world on course for 2030 that is made up of five key pillars. It also suggested that this strategy could provide the basis for a successful COP28 – the UN Climate Change Conference, set to be held from 30 November in Dubai this year. The five key pillars are therefore tripling global renewable capacity; doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements; cutting methane emissions from fossil fuel operations by 75%; innovative, large-scale financial mechanisms to triple clean energy investments in emerging and developing economies; and measures to ensure an orderly decline in the use of fossil fuels.
IEA Executive Director, Fatih Birol, said: “The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner the better for all of us.”
Birol urged governments, companies and investors to get behind the clean energy transitions, instead of hindering them. “There are immense benefits on offer, including new industrial opportunities and jobs, greater energy security, cleaner air, universal energy access and a safer climate for everyone. Taking into account the ongoing strains and volatility in traditional energy markets today, claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future look weaker than ever.”
