The UK government has been vindicated in its December 2021 statement that climate change will pose the biggest threat to domestic food production, the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has said.
It released analysis which found British households have paid an additional £605 for food in 2022 and 2023 because of the impacts of climate change and what have been historically high oil, gas and fertiliser prices. Despite energy prices actually falling this year, climate costs have increased and more than offset the impact of this – rising from £172 in 2022 to £192 in 2023.
Researchers from the Universities of Bournemouth, Exter and Sheffield explored fossil fuel price rises and the increase in global temperatures relative to a 1950-80 baseline to uncover the impact on food prices. From this, they found £361 attributable to climate change on food bills, compared to £244 from oil and gas prices. With the impacts of a changing climate only increasing, this suggests food prices will likely remain high for many years to come as yet.
Heatwaves across the Mediterranean, India and South America during 2023 have had a big impact on food production and global food prices this year, as has two years of drought and heatwaves in Spain and other key exporters in southern Europe. The UK itself faced drought in 2022, before an unusually wet harvest in 2023 and then the hottest September on record. It has since been left with hundreds of acres of prime farmland underwater because of Storm Babet, impacting supplies of potatoes and other vegetables.
Defra is looking at providing more support for sustainable farming, however, with new environmental land management schemes. These could help reduce exposure to climate impacts by increasing support for natural measures that can build soil fertility. These include green manures and cover crops. They are also capable of building resilience to drought by increasing the capacity of soil to retain moisture.
Professor Wyn Morgan, one of the report’s authors, warned: “Assuming average food price inflation of 15% for 2023, our results would suggest that climate change alone will account for a third of price increases this year. Given we expect climate impacts to get worse, it is likely that climate change will continue to fuel a cost of living crisis for the foreseeable future. With an El Niño event now confirmed, 2024 may have even worse in store for hard pressed shoppers.”
